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Change is inevitable

In the future, the changing climate will significantly alter how Bude’s coastline looks.

We are not alone. Coastlines all around the world are experiencing increasing erosion and flooding due to sea level rise and other climate change factors.

In Bude, situated right beside the full force of the Atlantic, we’re all too familiar with the impact of coastal storms. And as climate change makes weather patterns more extreme, we can expect an increase in the frequency, severity and damage caused by these storms.

The shoreline at Bude is particularly vulnerable because a lower level of sea level rise is required for extreme high-water events, which cause flooding and increase erosion, to become much more frequent.

The far north Cornish coast is unique in that it takes only 0.5m of sea level rise for currently very rare extreme high-water events to become a regular occurrence. Current sea-level rise predictions mean extreme high-water events that now occur once every 100 years will happen at least once a year in Bude by 2070.

The changing face of our shoreline

The threat of sea level rise

Our changing climate, caused by greenhouse gas emission, is driving global sea level rise and coastal change at ever increasing rates. As a result the risk of coastal flood and erosion will increase substantially in Bude over the coming decades.

Several factors contribute to sea level rise, each linked to rising global temperatures. The largest factor is thermal expansion, in which seawater expands as it becomes warmer.

Importantly, there is a substantial time lag between atmospheric temperatures rising and water expanding, mainly because of the vast amounts of water in the great ocean depths. It means that even if all greenhouse gas emissions were to stop today, sea levels will continue to rise for many years to come.

Scientists have calculated that the world has already emitted sufficient greenhouse gases to drive a global sea level rise of around one metre. To make matters worse, greenhouse gas emissions are still growing year-on-year and at increasingly faster rates. It’s not a question of if, but rather a question of when.

In the 20th century, the global average sea level rose at a rate of around 1.7mm per year. This rate of increase is now accelerating. Newlyn in Cornwall provides the UK’s longest ongoing sea-level time series. Analysis of Newlyn’s tidal gauge records from 1981-2016 shows the sea level rising by an average of 2.3mm per year, resulting in an overall local sea-level rise of approximately 7cm (nearly three inches) over 35 years.

How will our shoreline change?

The Environment Agency has developed a set of photo-realistic visualisations illustrating how our shoreline could change in Bude as a result of sea level rise – if we don’t act and just allow nature to take its course. But no one is suggesting we shouldn’t or can’t take action.

These visualisations were modelled using the most up-to-date and robust datasets available, including data collected from the South West Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme and climate data from the UK Climate Projections Project.

It mirrors data already available on Cornwall Council’s Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA) interactive mapping website.

It’s important to remember that these future coastal visualisations are an indication and are based on a ‘No Active Intervention’ management approach – in other words: it’s what will happen if we let nature takes its course and we do nothing. But the current management approach for Summerleaze and Crooklets is ‘Managed Realignment’. So, this means the plan at the moment is to mitigate the effects of sea level rise by adaptation measures.

Some uncertainty in future timing and magnitude of climate change means the actual coastal change experienced could be less – or greater – than shown. Spring mean high tide events will occur with regularity.

Who is responsible?

The Environment Agency’s Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) Strategy was published in 2020. It sets the national context for all regional and local coastal management policy.

The key message from the strategy is that the climate is changing rapidly and the risk of future flooding and coastal change is significant. The guiding principle is that, as a country, we need to move away from a narrow concept of protection – essentially building walls around things we want to protect – to a broader one of resilience.

On a local level, Cornwall Council is responsible for managing our shoreline according to the Shoreline Management Plan (SMP), which sets policies for managing coastal flood and erosion risks. SMPs also set guiding principles and a general ‘direction of travel’ with the hope of bringing about a more sustainable future for our coastlines.

SMPs also set guiding principles and a general ‘direction of travel’ with the hope of bringing about a more sustainable future for our coastlines.

In Bude, the SMP sets a preferred policy for Crooklets and Summerleaze beaches of ‘Managed Realignment’ in the short and medium term. The Breakwater and Canal has a preferred policy of ‘Hold the line’.

What does this mean? There are three possible preferred policy options for sections of the UK’s coastline.

1. Hold the line: Maintain or improve the current standard of protection provided by the existing defence line. This policy includes situations where work is carried out in front of the existing defences, such as beach recharge, rebuilding the toe of a structure or building offshore breakwaters .

2. Managed realignment: Allow the shoreline to move backwards or forwards, with management to control or limit movement, such as reducing erosion or building new defences on the landward side of the original defences.

3. No Active Intervention: Allow nature to take its course by not investing in coastal defences or operations.

Cornwall Council Flood Risk Assessment